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Predictability, bred vectors, and generation of ensembles in space-time chaotic systems

Journal: Physical Review E
Year: 2005   Volume: 72
Initial page: 15201   Last page: 15206
Status: Published
PDF file: 2005_primo_pre.pdf
DOI: doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.72.015201
, , López, J.M., Szendro, I.

Spatial configuration of initial errors strongly affects predictability of space-time chaotic systems. The predictability of numerical models can be adjusted by using prepared ensembles of initial conditions. We present a natural way of preparing ensembles based in using finite-amplitude perturbations with varying correlation. This allows one to take into account the underlying dynamics to generate initial perturbations with spatial correlations varying from fully correlated Bred Vectors to random fluctuations.