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Predicting extreme avalanches in SOC sandpiles

Journal: Physical Review E
Year: 2009   Volume: 802
Initial page: 26124  
Status: Published
In this status since: 30 Jan 2009
PDF file: sandpile_prediction.pdf
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.026124
Garber, A., , Kantz, H.

In a finite-size Abelian sandpile model, extreme avalanches are repelling each other. Taking a time series of the avalanche size and using a decision variable derived from that, we predict the occurrence of a particularly large avalanche in the next time step. The larger the magnitude of these target avalanches, the better is their predictability. The predictability which is based on a finite-size effect, is discussed as a function of the system size.