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Forest fires under climate, social and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean and other fireaffected areas of the world

logo_fume.png Project type: European project
Funding institution: European Union
Program: 7th European FP
Code: 243888
Period: January 2010 - December 2013
Status: In progress
Web: http://fumeproject.uclm.es/

Call Selected: FP7-ENV-2009-1 (ENV.2009.
Sub-Scheme Selected: CP-IP Collaborative project. Large Scale Integrating Project
Proposal ID: 243888
Coordinator: José Manuel Moreno
Nota de prensa UC (Spanish)


Fire regimes result from interactions between climate, land-use and land-cover (LULC), and socioeconomic factors, among other. These changed during the last decades, particularly around the Mediterranean. Our understanding of how they affected fire regime in the past is limited. During this century temperatures, drought and heat waves will very likely increase, and rainfall decrease. These and further socioeconomic change will affect LULC. Additional areas will be abandoned due to being unsuitable for agriculture or other uses. Fire danger and fire hazard are very likely to increase, affecting fire regimes. FUME will learn from the past to understand future impacts. Mod. 1 we will study how LULC and socioeconomics changed and how climate and weather affected fire in dynamically changing landscapes. Fires will be mapped throughout Europe to determine hazard burning functions for LULC types. Since climate has changed, an attempt to attribute (sensu IPCC) fire regime change to climate, differentiating it from socioeconomic change, will be made. Mod. 2 will produce scenarios of change (climate, including extremes, land-use land-cover, socioeconomics, vegetation) for various emissions pathways and three time-slices during this century. With these and results from Mod.1, models and field experiments projected impacts on fire-regime and vegetation vulnerabilities will be calculated, including climate extremes (drought, heat-waves). Mod. 3 will investigate adaptation options in fire- and land-management, including restoration. Fire prevention and fire fighting protocols will be tested/developed under the new conditions to mitigating fire risks. A company managing fire will be a key player. Costs and policy impacts of changes in fire will be sutied. Research will focus on old and new fire areas, the rural interface, whole Europe and the Mediterranean, including all Mediterranean countries of the wolrd. Users will be involed in training and other activities.

The following figure shows the pilot sites selected for the local studies (left panel) and the continental-local downscaling methodology (right) for the project.


Contribution of the Santander Meteorology Group:

Our group contributes to WP 1.2., WP2.1 and is responsible of WP4.1.

  • WP1.2. is divided into three tasks focused on the interactions between landscape properties and fire under different climate and weather conditions, including extremes. In WP 1.2., our main tasks are testing a battery of algorithms (linear and non-linear) in order to establish the relationships between fire and climate and weather. We will also supply historical climate records and will perform statistical downscaling from RCM outputs to those partners providing own historical observations for certain regions at the regional/local scales. Finally, we will provide state-of-the-art methodology for extreme event definition.
  • WP2.1. is devoted to scenario development for three factors strongly interacting with one another and influencing fire risk: Future climate change scenarios for several spatial and temporal resolutions (including climate and weather extremes), land use scenarios and potential natural vegetation scenarios. From these three factors, our group is involved in the first part (Task 2.1.1.) regarding climate change scenarios. The FUME DAP ( Database Access Portal ) has been designed by our group for accessing climate change scenarios derived from RCMs coupled to a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. In particular, simulations from the A1B scenario can be accessed and downloaded from the DAP. Datasets include 20th century data (1958-2000) and emission scenarios data A1B (2001-2100), although different scenarios can be included depending on FUME user's needs. ERA40 reanalysis data nested to each RCM are also provided for model bias correction.
  • WP4.1. is devoted to the FUME-DAP development. Responding to the demand of some partners requiring the download of large datasets, the FUME-THREDDS Data Server has been implemented. Both FUME-DAP and FUME-THREDDS are complementary tools for data download completing the FUME data access infrastructure. In addition, user manuals and other supplementary materials and information have been developed. Both FUME-DAP and FUME-THREDDS have been developed as a part of the FUME project for the achievement of three main objectives:
    • Building a central repository to gather, standardize and store all climate, LULC (Land Use / Land Cover) and fire data produced by the different FUME partners.
    • To allow the access to future climate change scenarios
    • To provide FUME partners a well documented, user-friendly access to these data via web using a portal.


    • (WP4.1)D.4.1.1. First prototype of the FUME Data Access Portal (M6).
    • Milestone 5. First prototype of the FUME-DAP (M6).
    • Milestone 7. Climate data and FIRE statistics available (M9).
    • (WP2.1)D.2.1.1. ENSEMBLES climate scenario at 25 km (M12).
      In this case we shall provide an evaluation of the multi-model scenarios performed with different RCMs coupled to different GCMs (from IPCC-AR4) in present climate, as well as projections for the period 2000-2050.

    • (WP4.1)D.4.1.2. Report of the data inventory (M12)
    • (WP4.1)D.4.1.3. Establishment of the FUME DAP (M16).
    • (WP2.1)D.2.1.6. ENSEMBLES local climate scenarios. UC (M24)
      In this case we shall apply statistical downscaling techniques for the fire-related parameters available at the different pilot sites using different statistical techniques and different GCMs (from IPCC-AR5 or AR5 if available).

    • (WP2.1)D.2.1.8. ENSEMBLES skill in extremes. UC (M36)
      We shall analyze the performance of the regional projections produced in Deliverables 11 and 26 to reproduce the extreme climate events relevant in the fire context.

    • (WP4.1)D.4.1.5. Integration of fire databases in the FUME DAP (M30)
    • (WP4.1)D.4.1.7. FUME DAP established and open (M48)