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How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa? A performance comparison for the downscaling community

Revista: Climate Dynamics
Año: 2013   Volumen: 41
Página inicial: 803   Última página: 817
Estado: Publicado
En este estado desde: 1 Ago 2013
Archivo PDF: Brands_2013_CD_evalCMIP5.pdf
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 in present climate conditions from a downscaling perspective, taking into account the requirements of both statistical and dynamical approaches. ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis is used as reference for an evaluation of circulation, temperature and humidity variables on daily timescale, which is based on distributional similarity scores. To additionally obtain an estimate of reanalysis uncertainty, ERA-Interim's deviation from the Japanese Meteorological Agency JRA-25 reanalysis is calculated. Areas with considerable differences between both reanalyses do not allow for a proper assessment, since ESM performance is sensitive to the choice of reanalysis.

For use in statistical downscaling studies, ESM performance is computed on the grid-box scale and mapped over a large spatial domain covering Europe and Africa, additionally highlighting those regions where significant distributional differences remain even for the centered/zero-mean time series. For use in dynamical downscaling studies, performance is specifically assessed along the lateral boundaries of the three CORDEX domains defined for Europe, the Mediterranean Basin and Africa.