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Future burned area projections in Iberia

The spatial and temporal variability of burned area (BA) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) was assessed and modeled through the merging of BA records from Portugal and Spain, a new dataset which allowed the construction of projections for future BA in different Iberian sectors. For this purpose, statistical models which reproduce the inter-annual BA variability were calibrated using the 1981-2005 period as a reference and then applied to Regional Climate Models (RCM) outputs for the 21st century.