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Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula

Revista: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Año: 2014  
Estado: Publicado
En este estado desde: 24 Nov 2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018
Sousa, P.M., Trigo, R. M., Pereira, M.G., ,

We developed projections for future fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula using outputs from Regional Climate Model (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES project. Our results confirm that the inter-annual variability of total burnt area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions, in spite of the current efforts for fire control and suppression. We also show that this meteorology dominance over fire activity is not only true during the fire season itself, but also that certain specific meteorological backgrounds (such as prolonged droughts) may enhance the risk for severe wildfire episodes in some areas.