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Role of internal variability in the simulation of heavy precipitation events

The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean (FPS-CEM, Coppola et al., 2018) started with a preliminary experiment to address the ability of convection-permitting climate models to reproduce convective processes as compared to short-term forecasts. To this aim, 3 heavy precipitation events were selected and simulated in two modes: weather-like (WL, initialized a few hours before the event) and climate mode (CM, initialized one month ahead). The WRF model community devised, for this initial experiment, a multi-physics ensemble, to explore physical parameterization uncertainty. In this work, we analyse the different ability of convection permitting climate models and configurations to reproduce specific heavy precipitation events, in the light of the model internal variability. For this purpose, the CM mode simulations were initialized with different initial conditions.

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