Santander Meteorology Group

A multidisciplinary approach for weather & climate

It is demonstrated that boreal winter accumulated heating degree days, a weather derivative product frequently demanded by energy suppliers (among others), can be skillfully predicted with a lead time of one month, i.e. at the beginning of the previous November, for many regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropcis. This finding contradicts the assumption of poor seasonal predictability for this variable. The present short note is meant to properly inform the participants of the weather derivative market in order to assure market transparency and to foster the scientific discussion on how to disseminate with this formerly unknown expert knowledge.