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Sensitivity analysis of driver's behavior and psychophysical conditions

Journal: Safety Science
Year: 2020   Volume: 125
Initial page: 104586  
Status: Published
In this status since: 10 Feb 2020
Link to PDF: García-Herrero et al. 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2019.104586
García-Herrero S., , , Azimian, A., Mariscal M.A.

To reduce traffic accidents, an accurately estimated model is needed to capture the true relationships between the injury severity and risk factors. This study aims to propose a robust procedure to address the biases in police-reported accident data and subsequently to conduct sensitivity analyzes in order to estimate the variations in injury severity and distraction probability based on drivers’ behaviors/characteristics and psychophysical conditions. The results show that: (i) the excess speed will likely increase the probability of serious/fatal injury for drivers of all age groups by 10%; (ii) distraction and driver’ errors will likely increase the probability of serious/fatal injury in all drivers driving at a proper speed up to 1.5%; (iii) alcohol and drug consumption can significantly increase the probability of being distracted and making errors by 28.5% and 33.5% respectively; (iv) Alcohol consumption reduces the probability of driving at an appropriate speed in drivers under 25 by 40%. However, the results for drugs consumption are not as significant as the ones for alcohol consumption.