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CORDyS

Contribution to the next generation of CORDEX regional climate projections: Dynamical and Statistical approaches

micin-aei-cordys_es_133x88.png Tipo de proyecto: Proyecto nacional
Fuente Financiadora: Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación / Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Código: PID2020-116595RB-I00
Periodo: Enero 2021 - Diciembre 2023
Estado: En progrso

MCIN/AEI CORDyS logo

The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative has been, for over a decade, the key international coordinating body in the production, scientific analysis and application of future climate projections at regional scale. This unfunded initiative provides a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The ongoing second phase, focused on regional challenges through Flagship Pilot Studies (FPS) and the production of homogeneous information across the world (CORDEX-CORE), provides key regional climate information and science to the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The research team of this proposal has been involved in CORDEX activities since its inception. With the support of the Spanish National R&D Programme, we have contributed to CORDEX using dynamical downscaling through Regional Climate Models (RCMs; CORWES 2011-2014 and INSIGNIA 2017-2020) and statistical downscaling, including bias adjustment methods (MULTI-SDM 2016-2019). In this series of projects, we have developed downscaling tools, applied them in the different CORDEX phases, and actively participated in the coordinated science derived from them. This past activity has positioned the team as the only Spanish research group contributing future regional climate projections (European and South American domains at 0.44º) to the CORDEX ensemble, and the first to deploy in Spain a data node of the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), in charge of distributing CORDEX data, among others.

CORDEX is currently facing the downscaling of CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), which represent the latest generation of Coupled Earth System Models. This proposal (CORDyS) aims to contribute to this next generation of CORDEX regional climate projections using both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, including statistical emulators of the dynamical models. Our objective is to contribute to (1) the process-based evaluation of the driving GCMs, (2) the downscaling of future climate projections for the current standard continental-scale CORDEX EUR-11 domain, (3) the further downscaling of future projections at very high resolution using a convection-permitting RCM and statistical emulators, (4) the distillation of actionable regional climate information for impacts assessment from these new-generation sources, and (5) the dissemination and publication of results and data products in the CORDEX community and ESGF infrastructure.

These activities build on well-established previous efforts and contribute to the current forefront of CORDEX, positioning the group internationally and contributing to an initiative which returns climate information for, essentially, all projects and research groups working on regional climate research and other users assessing vulnerability, impacts and adaptation measures for future climate change at regional scales. At a national level, the results of this project will inform and contribute to Escenarios-PNACC (Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático), providing climate projections which build on the CORDEX experience and use the reference observational datasets.

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