Changes between Version 12 and Version 13 of udg/ecoms/Dissemination/05062013_wp23

Dec 10, 2013 1:46:25 PM (9 years ago)



  • udg/ecoms/Dissemination/05062013_wp23

    v12 v13  
    1 [05-Jun-2013].''' EUPORIAS/SPECS Workshop: Initialisation of Impacts Models for Seasonal Predictions. Met Office, Exeter (UK).'''
     1[13-Nov-2013].''' SPECS Workshop: Verification of ensemble forecasts: A hands-on session. IC3, Barcelon (Spain).'''
    3 '''Attendees:'''
    4 * Met Office: Jemma Gornall, Karina Williams, Pete Falloon, Carlo Buontempo, Alberto Arribas and Rutger Dankers.
    5 * University of Leeds: Kathryn Nicklin.
    6 * WUR: Ronald Hutjes.
    7 * SMHI: Ilias Pechlivanidis.
    8 * University of Cantabria: Rodrigo García Manzanas.
     3In this workshop, state-of-the-art methods for the evaluation and
     4comparison of ensemble and probability forecasts will be discussed
     5and illustrated. The focus will be on reliability (a.k.a.
     6calibration) as an important property of such forecasts.
     7Verification methods for ensemble forecasts based on fair scores
     8and methods such as the rank histogram will be addressed. To
     9start, some theory of forecast verification and statistical
     10testing will be reviewed. In the main part of the workshop new R
     11routines for comparative ensemble verification, which are built
     12specifically to answer the question "Have the forecasts
     13improved?", will be introduced. Participants are invited to bring
     14their own ensemble data sets and computers to try out the new
     15methods live (the R functions will be made available online).
     16Feedback will be requested to further improve an R package for
     17forecast verification that is being prepared as part of the SPECS
     18project ("Seasonal-to-decadal climate Predictions for the
     19improvement of European Climate Services".
    10 '''Actions to be taken involving UC:'''
    11 * To create an inventory of the impacts models to be run within the project, specifying their mandatory/optional input variables, temporal resolution, required/preferred format etc. --> Met Office will circulate a survey among the impact users.
    12 * To write down a document describing the basis of seasonal forecast and a glosary including a list of commonly used terms.
     21'''Workshop outline:'''[[BR]]
     22'''''Imparted by Stefan Sieger (University of Exeter)'''''
    14 '''Impact users' requests:'''
    15 * To locally store subsets of data (retrieved from the SPECS-EUPORIAS data portal) in netCDF format.
    16 * To directly access the ensemble mean through the SPECS-EUPORIAS data portal (in addition to accessing each individual member).
     24Theory (ca. 1 hour):
     25* probabilistic forecast verification
     26* ensemble verification
     27* fair scores
     28* rank histogram
     29* statistical testing, bootstrapping
    18 '''Open discussions:'''
    19 * Possibility to establish new case studies out of Europe, based on the skill of seasonal forecasts.
     31Hands on session (ca. 1 hour):
     32* presentation of the R functions
     33* live ensemble verification of toy model data
     34* live ensemble verification of s2d ensemble forecasts
     36Discussion (ca. 1 hour):
     37* user feedback
     38* requests and ideas for more verification methods
     39* open questions
     41'''Workshop imparted by:'''
     42* Stefan Sieger (University of Exeter).
     44'''Attendees from UC:'''
     45* Rodrigo García Manzanas.
     47'''Actions taken by UC:'''
     48* Rodrigo has sent an email to Stefan Sieger proposing the collaboration of UC in the development of the R-package for forecast verification (in particular, the implementation of a new routine for drawing ROC curves and computing the associdated ROC Skill Score).
     51* [ SPECS R-package for forecast verification]