Changes between Version 12 and Version 13 of udg/ecoms/Dissemination/05062013_wp23

Timestamp:

Dec 10, 2013 1:46:25 PM (8 years ago)

Author:

rodri

Comment:

--

udg/ecoms/Dissemination/05062013_wp23

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-[05-Jun-2013].''' EUPORIAS/SPECS Workshop: Initialisation of Impacts Models for Seasonal Predictions. Met Office, Exeter (UK).''' 
+[13-Nov-2013].''' SPECS Workshop: Verification of ensemble forecasts: A hands-on session. IC3, Barcelon (Spain).''' 
 
-'''Attendees:'''
-* Met Office: Jemma Gornall, Karina Williams, Pete Falloon, Carlo Buontempo, Alberto Arribas and Rutger Dankers.
-* University of Leeds: Kathryn Nicklin.
-* WUR: Ronald Hutjes.
-* SMHI: Ilias Pechlivanidis.
-* University of Cantabria: Rodrigo García Manzanas.
+In this workshop, state-of-the-art methods for the evaluation and
+comparison of ensemble and probability forecasts will be discussed
+and illustrated. The focus will be on reliability (a.k.a.
+calibration) as an important property of such forecasts.
+Verification methods for ensemble forecasts based on fair scores
+and methods such as the rank histogram will be addressed. To
+start, some theory of forecast verification and statistical
+testing will be reviewed. In the main part of the workshop new R
+routines for comparative ensemble verification, which are built
+specifically to answer the question "Have the forecasts
+improved?", will be introduced. Participants are invited to bring
+their own ensemble data sets and computers to try out the new
+methods live (the R functions will be made available online).
+Feedback will be requested to further improve an R package for
+forecast verification that is being prepared as part of the SPECS
+project ("Seasonal-to-decadal climate Predictions for the
+improvement of European Climate Services".
 
-'''Actions to be taken involving UC:'''
-* To create an inventory of the impacts models to be run within the project, specifying their mandatory/optional input variables, temporal resolution, required/preferred format etc. --> Met Office will circulate a survey among the impact users.
-* To write down a document describing the basis of seasonal forecast and a glosary including a list of commonly used terms.
+'''Workshop outline:'''[[BR]]
+'''''Imparted by Stefan Sieger (University of Exeter)'''''
 
-'''Impact users' requests:'''
-* To locally store subsets of data (retrieved from the SPECS-EUPORIAS data portal) in netCDF format.
-* To directly access the ensemble mean through the SPECS-EUPORIAS data portal (in addition to accessing each individual member). 
+Theory (ca. 1 hour):
+* probabilistic forecast verification
+* ensemble verification
+* fair scores
+* rank histogram
+* statistical testing, bootstrapping
 
-'''Open discussions:'''
-* Possibility to establish new case studies out of Europe, based on the skill of seasonal forecasts.
+Hands on session (ca. 1 hour):
+* presentation of the R functions
+* live ensemble verification of toy model data
+* live ensemble verification of s2d ensemble forecasts
+
+Discussion (ca. 1 hour):
+* user feedback
+* requests and ideas for more verification methods
+* open questions 
+
+'''Workshop imparted by:'''
+* Stefan Sieger (University of Exeter).
+
+'''Attendees from UC:'''
+* Rodrigo García Manzanas.
+
+'''Actions taken by UC:'''
+* Rodrigo has sent an email to Stefan Sieger proposing the collaboration of UC in the development of the R-package for forecast verification (in particular, the implementation of a new routine for drawing ROC curves and computing the associdated ROC Skill Score). 
+
+'''Links:'''
+* [https://github.com/sieste SPECS R-package for forecast verification]