92 | | For each member, the daily predictions are averaged to obtain a single seasonal forecast (this yields a first warning, as in this example). For rectangular spatial domains (i.e., for grids), the spatial average is first computed (with a warning) to obtain a unique series for the whole domain, as in this example. The corresponding terciles for each ensemble member are then computed for the analysis period. Thus, data is converted to a series of tercile categories by considering values above, between or below the terciles of the whole period. The probability of a member to fall into the observed tercile is represented by the colorbar (different color palettes are available through the argument `color.pal`). For instance, probabilities below 1/3 are very low, indicating that a minority of the members falls in the tercile. Conversely, probabilities above 2/3 indicate a high level of member agreement (more than 66% of members falling in the same tercile). The observed terciles (the events that actually occurred) are represented by the white circles. |
| 92 | For each member, the daily predictions are averaged to obtain a single seasonal forecast (this yields a first warning, as in this example). For rectangular spatial domains (i.e., for grids), the spatial average is first computed (with a warning) to obtain a unique series for the whole domain, as in this example. The corresponding terciles for each ensemble member are then computed for the analysis period. Thus, data is converted to a series of tercile categories by considering values above, between or below the terciles of the whole period. The probability of a member to fall into its respective climatological tercile is represented by the colorbar (different color palettes are available through the argument `color.pal`). For instance, probabilities below 1/3 are very low, indicating that a minority of the members falls in the tercile. Conversely, probabilities above 2/3 indicate a high level of member agreement (more than 66% of members falling in the same tercile). The observed terciles (the events that actually occurred) are represented by the white circles. |